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Purpose: To evaluate whether, in principle, the mean CT attenuation values of kidney stones could predict fragmentation by shockwaves.

Materials and Methods: Four types of artificial kidney stones having different CT attenuation values were tested. Artificial stones were weighed and exposed to 700 shockwaves at 21 kV at the focus of an electrohydraulic lithotripter. Fragments were strained through meshes with 2 × 2-mm and 3.1 × 3.1-mm openings. The material left on the meshes after shockwave exposure was dried and weighed on a precision scale. Half of all artificial stones were saturated by immersing them in water several days before fragmentation. Fragmentation coefficients (i.e., percent weight loss) were associated with CT attenuation values using a statistical model.

Results: Higher CT numbers resulted in lower fragmentation coefficients. Artificial stone weight was inversely proportional to the percent weight loss. Larger fragments were obtained at lower fragmentation coefficients. Statistical analysis revealed that fragmentation can be predicted knowing the weight and the CT number of a stone before shockwave application.

Conclusion: Prediction of the number of shockwaves necessary for successful SWL could be possible. Our statistical model proved to fit in vitro fragmentation of artificial stones; however, clinical application requires further research.