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AIDS Research and Human Retroviruses
The Rate of Epidemiological And Virological Changes during The Transition from Nascent to Concentrated HIV Epidemic Stage in The Former Soviet Union Countries

To cite this article:
Alexey A. Nabatov, Alexey E. Masharsky, Sergei V. Verevochkin, Alexander V. Emelyanov, Vladimir V. Lukashov, Robert Heimer, Robert W. Ryder, Jaap Goudsmit, Andrei P. Kozlov. AIDS Research and Human Retroviruses. February 2007, 23(2): 183-192. doi:10.1089/aid.2006.0006.

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Alexey A. Nabatov
Department of Molecular Cellular Biology and Immunology, VU Medical Center, Free University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
The Biomedical Center, St. Petersburg, Russia.
Alexey E. Masharsky
The Biomedical Center, St. Petersburg, Russia.
Sergei V. Verevochkin
The Biomedical Center, St. Petersburg, Russia.
Alexander V. Emelyanov
Temasek LifeSciences Laboratory, Singapore.
Vladimir V. Lukashov,
Department of Human Retrovirology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
D.I. Ivanovsky Institute of Virology, Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Moscow, Russia.
Robert Heimer
Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut.
Robert W. Ryder
School of Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina.
Jaap Goudsmit
Department of Human Retrovirology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Crucell Holland BV, Leiden, The Netherlands.
Andrei P. Kozlov
The Biomedical Center, St. Petersburg, Russia.

The rate of processes accompanying the transition of the HIV-1 epidemic from nascent stage to concentrated one in the Former Soviet Union (FSU) during intravenous drug user (IDU)-associated HIV infection outbreaks in 1994–1999 has not been analyzed. To define the rates, we studied susceptible populations and circulating viruses before, during, and after the outbreaks. Our findings included the following: (1) the pattern of high HIV-1 genetic diversity characteristic of the nascent epidemic changed to a concentrated one within 1 year in St. Petersburg and in Moscow; (2) different FSU regions were at different stages of the HIV-1 epidemic in 1994–1996; (3) the change of serotypic patterns characteristic of different stages of the HIV/AIDS epidemic for the non-IDU risk group occurred within 1 year in Moscow, suggesting an extremely high rate of IDU-associated epidemic pattern distributions in regions and susceptible populations in the FSU.

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