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AIDS Patient Care and STDs
Predictors of AIDS-Related Morbidity and Mortality in a Southern U.S. Cohort

To cite this article:
Michael J. Mugavero, Brian Wells Pence, Kathryn Whetten, Jane Leserman, Marvin Swartz, Dalene Stangl, Nathan M. Thielman. AIDS Patient Care and STDs. September 2007, 21(9): 681-690. doi:10.1089/apc.2006.0167.

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Michael J. Mugavero, M.D., M.H.S.
Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, Alabama.
Brian Wells Pence, Ph.D., M.P.H.
Health Inequalities Program, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina.
Center for Health Policy, Sanford Institute of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina.
Kathryn Whetten, Ph.D., M.P.H.
Health Inequalities Program, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina.
Center for Health Policy, Sanford Institute of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina.
Department of Community and Family Medicine, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina.
Jane Leserman, Ph.D.
Department of Psychiatry, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina.
Marvin Swartz, M.D.
Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina.
Dalene Stangl, Ph.D.
Institute of Statistics and Design Sciences, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina.
Nathan M. Thielman, M.D., M.P.H.
Health Inequalities Program, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina.
Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina.

Advances in the treatment of HIV and associated opportunistic infections (OIs) have led to dramatic reductions in HIV-related morbidity and mortality in the United States, but not all patients have benefited equally. A longitudinal analysis of the Coping with HIV/AIDS in the Southeast (CHASE) cohort evaluated sociodemographic, psychosocial, and clinical factors associated with HIV-related events (incident category C OI or AIDS-related death) among southern HIV-infected patients engaged in clinical care. Participants were followed for a median of 30 months (interquartile range, 17–34 months) after study enrollment (enrollment period December 2001 to April 2002). Ten percent of study participants (50/489) experienced an HIV-related event (incident category C OI and/or AIDS-related deaths) during study follow-up. The rate of HIV-related events was 4.8 per 100 patient-years of observation, and the rate of AIDS-related death was 1.5 per 100 patient-years of observation. In unadjusted survival analyses, younger age, lacking private health insurance, psychosocial trauma, depressive symptoms, lower baseline CD4 count, and less time on antiretroviral therapy during follow-up were associated with HIV-related events. In Cox proportional hazards analysis adjusting for covariates, patients who had suffered more psychosocial trauma (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.97, p = 0.04), who had lower baseline CD4 counts (HR = 0.48 per 100 cells/mm3, p < 0.01), and who spent less time on antiretroviral therapy during follow-up (HR = 0.47, p = 0.02) were more likely to experience an HIV-related event.

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