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Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases
Climate Change Effects on Plague and Tularemia in the United States

To cite this article:
Yoshinori Nakazawa, Richard Williams, A. Townsend Peterson, Paul Mead, Erin Staples, Kenneth L. Gage. Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases. December 2007, 7(4): 529-540. doi:10.1089/vbz.2007.0125.

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Yoshinori Nakazawa 
Natural History Museum and Biodiversity Research Center, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas.
Richard Williams 
Natural History Museum and Biodiversity Research Center, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas.
A. Townsend Peterson 
Natural History Museum and Biodiversity Research Center, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas.
Paul Mead 
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado.
Erin Staples 
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado.
Kenneth L. Gage 
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado.

Plague and tularemia are serious zoonotic diseases endemic to North America. We evaluated spatial patterns in their transmission in view of changing climates. First, we tested whether observed shifts since the 1960s are consistent with expected patterns of shift given known climate changes over that period. Then, we used general circulation model results summarizing global patterns of changing climates into the future to forecast likely shifts in patterns of transmission over the next 50 years. The results indicate that these diseases are indeed shifting in accord with patterns of climatic shift, but that overall geographic shifts will likely be subtle, with some northward movement of southern limits and possibly northward movement of northern limits as well.

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